German Birth Rate Hits Biggest Decline in Twenty Years

Germany’s Birth Rate Falls to 1.35, Marking Continued Decline

By Sharnellia Bennett-Smith

Berlin, Germany — Germany’s national fertility rate dropped to 1.35 children per woman in 2024, according to newly released data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The figure represents a continued downward trend following the 1.38 rate recorded in 2023 and places Germany significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, which is required to maintain population stability without immigration.

The decline was observed across both German and foreign-born populations. Among women with German citizenship, the fertility rate fell to 1.23—the lowest level since 1996. The rate among women with foreign citizenship also declined slightly, from 1.88 to 1.84.

The data show that the most pronounced declines occurred in eastern Germany, where birth rates fell by approximately 18% over a two-year period. In western Germany, the decrease was 13%. The federal state with the lowest fertility was Berlin, at 1.21, while Lower Saxony reported the highest, at 1.42.

This development follows a temporary rise in birth rates between 2015 and 2021, largely attributed to increased immigration. However, more recent migration—particularly from countries such as Ukraine—has not been sufficient to counterbalance the national decline.

Economists and demographers have raised concerns about the long-term implications of sustained low fertility. A shrinking working-age population may lead to labor shortages, reduced economic output, and increased pressure on Germany’s social security and pension systems.

According to researchers cited in economic reports, Germany is now part of a growing group of European countries with “ultra-low fertility”—defined by the United Nations as fewer than 1.4 children per woman. Austria, Spain, and Italy are also among this group.

The Federal Statistical Office has not attributed the drop to a single factor but cited broader demographic and economic trends as contributing causes. Analysts point to a combination of delayed childbearing, economic uncertainty, high housing costs, and work-life balance challenges as likely influences.

Government efforts to encourage family growth through parental leave policies, childcare subsidies, and tax incentives have so far failed to reverse the trend. The Ministry for Family Affairs declined to comment directly on the new figures but stated that the federal government remains committed to supporting families and improving conditions for working parents.

Germany’s total population has remained stable in recent years due to migration, but the fertility data suggest that population growth will become increasingly dependent on immigration in the absence of a rebound in domestic birth rates. No official policy changes in response to the new data have been announced at this time.