U.S. Birthrates In New Historic Slump

U.S. Birthrates Remain in Historic Slump, Raising Alarm Among Demographers

By Marie o’Nealle

Washington, D.C. – The U.S. birthrate remains at historically low levels, continuing a downward trajectory that has persisted for over a decade. According to newly released data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the general fertility rate in 2024 was 54.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, one of the lowest rates recorded in the nation’s history.

Despite small fluctuations year over year, the broader trend points to a sustained decline. The total fertility rate—which estimates the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime—remains around 1.6. This figure falls significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, which is required for a population to maintain its size without immigration.

The decline has been most pronounced among women in their twenties, a group that historically accounted for the largest share of U.S. births. Births among women aged 20 to 24 have dropped by nearly half since 2007. At the same time, the birthrate for women aged 40 to 44 has steadily increased, reflecting broader shifts in reproductive timing and family planning.

Several structural factors contribute to this trend. Economic insecurity, rising housing and childcare costs, high levels of student debt, and changing cultural expectations around marriage and parenthood are all associated with delayed or forgone childbearing. In addition, access to contraception, expanded educational and professional opportunities for women, and shifting personal priorities have reshaped the reproductive landscape.

The consequences of continued low fertility are expected to be far-reaching. A shrinking birthrate places long-term pressure on labor markets, tax bases, and entitlement programs, particularly as the U.S. population ages. With fewer young people entering the workforce, the ability to sustain programs like Social Security and Medicare may become increasingly strained.

In response, some policymakers have proposed financial incentives for childbearing, but such measures have yet to reverse the demographic trend. Analysts continue to stress that short-term monetary benefits are unlikely to address the deeper structural issues driving the decline.